A Few Surprises...and Annoyances...Thoughts on the Oscar Noms.

BEST PICTURE
Curiouse Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire


Best Picture did throw us a curveball. Unfortunately it was The Dark Knight that was shut out for The Reader. I did find myself surprised by that one. There didn't seem to be a great deal of buzz in the picture direction for the film.

Your winner: Likely Slumdog Millionaire.
Hedge your bets: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Director
Danny Boyle -Slumdog
David Fincher -Benjamin
Ron Howard -Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant -Milk
Stephen Daldry -The Reader

The surprise here is the same. Daldry replaces Christopher Nolan. Many who even conceded that The Dark Knight was vulnerable in picture, thought Nolan could pull off this nomination. Guess not.

Interesting trivia note: Stephen Daldry has directed three motion picture features. He has been nominated for Best Director for all three. Don't bet against him for a nomination.

Your winner: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire.
Hedge your bets: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost / Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

All three of my favorites make the cut, which is nice. Picking a winner is tougher. It's clearly one of two actors - Penn or Rourke - but will they continue their love of Penn or will they keep the Mickey Rourke comeback train rolling? I think they go with what they know.

Your winner: Sean Penn, Milk
Hedge your bets: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Best Actress
Ann Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader

I really would have rather seen Sally Hawkins in here over either Angelina Jolie (all screams and tears) or Meryl Streep (love her, but this isn't her best work - I wasn't enamoured with her interpretation of the role). But, you can't always get what you want, especially with the Oscars.

Your Winner: Kate Winslet, The Reader.
Hedge your bets: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Michael Shannon is a surprise nominee (and not a bad choice), but this category is already sewn up.

Your Winner: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight.
Hedge your bets: Better yet, don't.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

The surprise here is that Kate Winslet is nominated for Best Actress for The Reader and not (in a fraudulent way) Best Supporting Actress. This clears the way for Penelope Cruz.

Your Winner: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona.
Hedge your bets: Viola Davis, Doubt.

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL*E

Because nearly all of the best picture nominees come from the Adapted Screenplay category, this category is pretty wide open. However, the closest thing to an adaption would be Milk, and since it's the only Best Picture nominee, it's your likely winner. But, this could leave the door open for WALL*E love.

Your winner? Dustin Lance Black, Milk.
Hedge your bets: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, and Jim Reardon, for WALL*E.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost / Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Here's where the heavy hitters are, but unless there's a total Slumdog backlash (which is possible - but we can't know that for a few weeks), this one's obvious.

Your winner: Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire.
Hedge your bets: David Hare, The Reader.

Best Foreign Language Film
Germany - The Baader Meinhof Complex
France - The Class
Japan - Departures
Austria - Revanche
Israel - Waltz with Bashir

Hoo-ray! Two of my top three films of the year are nominated here. Were they justice, they would have received other nominations, but when you love international cinema, you get used to these films being stuck in the Foreign Film ghetto. It's been on a role, so I expect Waltz with Bashir to continue winning - especially given its curious snub in Best Animated Film.

Your winner: Waltz with Bashir, from Israel.
Hedge your bets: Departures, from Japan.

Best Documentary
The Betrayal
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Some good docs on this list. Man on Wire has been rolling all year long in all of the precursors and I expect that to continue. There might be room for the first nominee to examine the impact of Katrina, though.

Your winner: Man on Wire.
Hedge your bets: Trouble the Water.

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL*E

Egad, did they screw this one up. How odd, the foreign languge committee and the documentary committee - the two most derided parts of the Academy for cinephiles got it right (at least with what they had to work with - great docs like Young @ Heart and Waltz with Bashir were considered ineligble due to overly strict / odd Academy rules). And the animation branch, who has generally gotten things right every year - picking unique foreign entries like Persepolis and The Triplets of Belleville as nominees; and in most cases honing them down to the proper winner for each year since they've begun. But boy did they screw it up this year. Leaving out Waltz with Bashir for the pleasant but unremarkable Bolt is a slap in the face to the format altogether - suggesting that animation is only for kids movies. I'm just not sure what happened. Anyway, it's all academic as the winner was never in doubt.

Your winner: WALL*E
Hedge your bets: There is no such thing.

Over the next few days, we'll discuss tech categories and some of the other categories.