Final Predictions for the Oscars

Okay, so this may disagree in places with what I've written previously, but here's what I'm predicting for this Sunday's Oscars.

Oh, and the next major announcement for the NaFF line-up? March 9.

Now, back to the future:

Best Picture:

I just don't see anyone beating Slumdog Millionaire. There is the possibility of an upset, but it's honestly so slim that betting against it is a fool's bet. Sometimes fools are right though. If you want to bet like a fool, I'd say The Reader. Sometimes betting against Harvey Weinstein (once nominated) can be risky.

Best Director:

Again, this one seems safely in Danny Boyle's corner for his direction of Slumdog Millionaire. If, for some weird reason, Oscar voters decide they're not going to be told what to do by seemingly every previous awards body, they could go for Stephen Daldry (besides, the Oscar voting body has decided that he can do NO wrong) or even less likely Gus van Sant. Still, this is Doyle's to lose.

Best Actor:

This one is still a bit of a toss-up. Sean Penn is greatly loved as an actor in Hollywood (if not for his politics - as much as right-wingers like to pretend his leftist politics make him popular, they really don't. Oscar voters are actually very uncomfortable with blatant politics, although they admittedly lean liberal). However, the Mickey Rourke story may be too overwhelming to vote against.

In the end, I'm leaning Sean Penn for Milk. But if Mickey Rourke wins, don't say I told you it was a sure thing - because it's not. Of the majors, this is the toughest call...except for...


...Best Actress

The Academy made an honest decision when they decided to nominate Kate Winslet for Best Actress for The Reader. At least the didn't fall for category fraud in voting for this as a supporting performance when it was clearly a lead. That said, they made this category a little more difficult to predict. However, Miss I've-been-more-nominated-than-any-other-actress-my-age has also proved to be Miss I've-deserved-to-win-at-least-once-and-been-overlooked and is therefore likely to take home the little golden guy for her role. There are two spoilers here. Anne Hathaway could upset with Rachel Getting Married - but that grew less likely with Winslet's solo nomination. Meryl Streep could pull home another trophy for Doubt, but that became even more less likely (is that accurate terminology?). This one is Kate's to lose.

But...The fact that the Academy got one thing right, made another actress the happiest person in Hollywood (or Spain, given her current location).

Best Supporting Actress

Given her double victory at the Golden Globes it looked like Kate Winslet was a shoe-in for Best Supporting Actress for The Reader. But, when the Academy decided to get it right and nominate one of her two lead performances for Best Actress, that made the race for Supporting Actress not more interesting - but more obvious for someone else.

There are a lot of us who have thought that Penelope Cruz's performances in Vicky Christina Barcelona was among the best female performances of the year. But we were unsure if she would be able to overcome the politics of Oscar to win. Now that Winslet is out of the way, it's quite likely that this previously nominated actress will once again bring Woody Allen's supporting actress strength back to the forefront.

Now, that said, if you're going to split your bet, Viola Davis in Doubt is a strong second contender. She could take it. I wouldn't be surprised if she did. However, I have an inkling that there are going to be too many voters who see her role as too brief for the win.

Best Supporting Actor

The run for Best Supporting Actor is pretty much a foregone conclusion. There's a part of me that thinks the Academy could rebel against the posthumous tribute to Heath Ledger, but I just can't really come up with a legitimate way that could occur.

It was a great performance and it's won basically every predecessor leading up to Sunday night.

To bet against it could result in large profits (given how your Oscar pool runs things), but I somehow think that Jim Varney has about the same chance as winning a posthumus Oscar as Heath's fellow contenders do.

Don't expect anyone else to take this award.

Oh, and rumor is his daughter will be the one to receive the trophy (not accept, but ultimately get it).

Best Original Screenplay

I think this one is pretty much wrapped up. Although there is a dark-horse (as opposed to a Dark Knighti) in this one.

Dustin Lance Black's screenplay for Milk should take home the trophy Sunday night. There is a history of homophobia in the Academy (I don't think any of us forget what happened with Brokeback Mountain and Crash), but I don't think it applies in the screenplay realm. Brokeback Mountain won the screenplay (adapted) prize back in 2005, despite not winning all of the predecessors. So, I think Dustin Lance Black will take home the the golden guy for his wonderful (if occasionally on-the-nose) screenplay for Milk.

Best Adapted Screenplay

It's in this category (depending on how early they present it) that we'll being to learn how much strength Slumdog Millionaire actually has. It's clearly the favorite here, but if it doesn't win this category, then it's chances of sweeping in the categories where it's nominated are slimmer. There are possibilities here besides the little movie that could, however, I don't see them coming to fruition. This one goes to Simon Beaufoy for his adaptation.

If you did decide to bet elsewhere, then you'd pretty much have to go with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. But I just don't see that happening. As a caveat, The Reader could do it. Again though, don't bet on it.

Best Cinematography

The streak for that little Indian film that's actually British doesn't stop here. Despite a strong field, Slumdog wins Cinematography as well. I could be wrong, but Slumdog won just about every predecessor leading up to Sunday night. To see that change on this night would be odd.
That said, all of the other contenders are strong. My thought? They're so strong that they split the votes enough that they eliminate any other possibility.

Best Art Direction

I think this is the first non-acting category where Slumdog isn't a player, so finally we can switch something up. There are several possibilities here, but I think the winner here is probably The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The film has the most nominations, so it's going to win in a few spots (at least I think so). But let us not forget that The Dark Knight has a large number of supporters as well, so it's likely to be one of those two.

Oh, but then...let us not forget that these categories get all giddy over period pieces. So, The Duchess is also a possibility here.

However, I still think the Button is fastened in on this one.

And I'll attempt to avoid the awful puns from here on out.

Best Costume Design.

I just don't see the Academy overcoming its addition for the ultimate period costumes in this category. As excited as I got over them finally nominating a film from the 1970s (Milk), they'll likely never give that a win.

They're so hooked on powdered wigs and crinoline that I can't see The Duchess not winning in this one category. Despite its nominations in other categories, this is the only one where it's got a shot. Get out your rouge, red up your cheeks, and make sure those hips are too big to get through the door, The Duchess is winning this one.


Best Editing

Of the semi-major categories, this one is still a bit tricky. I originally predicted The Dark Knight, but I'm not so taken with that guess at this point. I'm beginning to think, despite my urge to consider a Slumdog backlash, that Slumdog Millionaire is going to get all LOTR on the Academy and win just about everything it's nominated for.

That said, both The Dark Knight and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button could do it. Although, if I were going to be on something other than Slumdog, I'd choose the Knight over the Button.

In the end though, I think this one is going to be yet another Slumdog victory.

Best Foreign Language Film

In a year when the likely Best Picture winner is partially in a foreign language film, it's sort of odd that that winner does not come from this field (well, not really...but you know what I'm saying...rather, writing). While I'd like to say this is obvious, it's really not. This is one of the strongest fields in this category in quite some time. Sure, there are those griping about the snub of Gomorrah, but I don't buy that. I thought it was a good film, but not a great film.

That said, two of my three favorite films of 2008 are in this category. I would not be upset if either of them won. The Class from France is my #1 film of 2008. If it wins, I'd be thrilled. However, if Waltz with Bashir wins, I might be even happier. It's my #3 film of 2008 but if it wins, it would break so many historical records, that I might be even a little more thrilled. It's already both the first animated film and the first documentary film nominated in this category, so its win would set (hopefully) a great genre-breaking precedence. I'd be happy with either.

I still think my initial instinct is correct here, though. I think Waltz with Bashir makes history here.

Best Documentary

This one should be obvious. The combination of winning basically every predecessor, the critical acclaim, and relative box office success it accumulated, Man on Wire should take this without a second thought.

But...Tell Sally Hawkins that. She was the first actress to win Best Actress from the four major critics' bodies (the NBR, the LAFCC, the NYFCC, and the NSFC) and not receive a nomination. And the outcome in this category has always been a question of the Academy's integrity.

That said, it's box office success and crowd pleaser status should assure this exhilerating documentary's victory.

Best Original Score

Oh...as much as I love that movie, it was kind of fun not talking about for a moment, wasn't it? Well, it's time to talk about it again. But, even if you're one of those Slumdog haters, you've got to admit that this is a category where the film is deservedly the favorite. AR Rahman's score is part of the exhuberant core of the film. It's hard to complain about this one. And it's fun to imagine everyone Bollywood dancing their way through their Oscar parties.

Best Original Song

There are those out there who think that Peter Gabriel's delightful song from WALL*E is going to win thanks to a split vote of the two songs from Slumdog Millionaire. I don't think that's going to happen. Now, if the Academy had been smart enough to nominate Bruce Springsteen's brilliant "The Wreslter" from (well, duh) The Wrestler, then we'd be having a different conversation. But, they screwed this category up. But, that doesn't mean that the existing nominees are bad. They're not. They're quite fun.

Thus, I think (speaking of fun) the winner is going to be "Jai Ho" from Slumdog. "O Saya" might be a better song (to some). Other might think that "Down to Earth" is the best (it's good, but it's questionable). I actually think that the best of the existing nominees is going to win.

"Jai Ho" to you all.

Best Live Action Short

Well, here we go into the toughest calls. These - even if you're among the rarest group of folks who have been able to see them all - are always the most difficult to predict. I have seen some of these but still find it very hard to tell where they're going to go.

Sadly, they've given us a clue. There's a film in the bunch about that old Oscar standard - and I hate saying it - The Holocaust. Toyland is predicted to be the winner here. With a plot similar to (the repugnant) The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, it is likely the winner. While I hope that's not the case, it's probably true.

If it were up to me - and I think it's legitimately the second choice to win - The Pig, is the best of the bunch. It's really enjoyable, it has a message, but it doesn't push it too far.

That said, although I would like to, I can't choose subtlety over obviousness and The Holocaust, so if I were betting, I'd bet on Toyland.

Best Animated Short

The choices here (that I've seen) are pretty good, but it's hard to bet against Pixar - although surprisingly, they're not consistantly favorites in this category. While Le Maison en Petit Cubes is good, I just don't see it overtaking the old-fashioned Looney Toons joy of Pixar's Presto!

Best Documentary Short

Despite my job in the film festival industry, I've never had the opportunity to see a documentary short prior to its nomination. Through my job, I caught one of the nominees this year. It was good, but not great. Everyone says that the winner is The Conscience of Nhem En. I'd bet on it if I were you. Besides, it was covered on NPR the other day.

Best Sound Mixing / Sound Editing

This one's really interesting, despite it being - on the surface - being completely unintersting. Let's be honest, who the hell knows what this category really is. I see 1,000 movies a year, but I still can't define the difference between this and the next category (Sound Editing). And basically, neither can the Academy. The two sound awards almost always line up with one another. Let's keep an eye on this one. If they go to Slumdog Millionaire, then we will know where the rest of them are going to go. If it wins here, it's a sweep.

However, there are three films that could guide us as to where the night is going.

If it's The Dark Knight: then look for it to take a lot throughout the night.
If it's WALL*E: then it could likely sweep everything it's nominate for.
or If it's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: then you might see some upsets in some of the majors where it crosses paths with Slumdog Millionaire.

For the moment, I'm going Slumdog. However, between now and Sunday, I could be convinced to go WALL*E. I'd suggest splitting your bet in your pool. That's the safest way to go.

Best Visual Effects / Best Make-Up

These two are among the easiet to pick. If you're wrong (which means you agree with me, and that means, collectively we're right) then it's not your fault.

If the Academy goes anywhere outside The Curious Case of Benjamin Button then the Academy is merely proving its own short-sightedness. This film, despite its flaws in other areas, has demonstrated the most remarkable achievements in these two fields in quite some time. Place your bets here and loudly "boo" if you're wrong. If you are wrong, it's not your fault (nor mine). It would be the fault of idiotic voters.